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Week of September 15th, 2025
From the Fed's first 25 basis point cut of 2025 amid Governor Miran's dissent to silver's 14 year high driven by short squeezes and AI infrastructure demand, while McKinsey's "Great Convergence" pinpointed $6-10.5 trillion in asset flows reshaping traditional and alternative management. Secondary market volumes tracking toward $200 billion annually as LP-led transactions surge amid liquidity constraints, GP stakes investments capturing management company economics as institutions seek direct exposure to fee streams and carried interest rather than just fund performance, private credit interval funds democratizing institutional strategies, and FX hedges European bonds yielding above 5% to dollar. The full weekly briefing below.
Compendium
Global Markets
David Novosardian
Market Barometer
S&P 500
Dow Jones
FTSE
Euro Stoxx 50
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
DXY
Oil (Brent)
Monday, September 15, 2025
Market
configuration
intensified
ahead
of
the
Fed's
first
rate
decision
of
2025
with
equity
flows
revealing
institutional
divergence.
The
Dow
exhibited
early
momentum
while
tech
equities
showed
pre
decision
uncertainty.
Retail
sales
data
demonstrated
consumer
resilience
despite
elevated
borrowing
costs,
however,
the
underlying
composition
showed
defensive
rotation
toward
necessities.
TikTok
divestiture
negotiations accelerated
as
the
January
deadline
approached
with
potential
acquirers
including
Oracle
and
Microsoft
circling
the
$100+
billion
opportunity.
HSBC
Asset
Management
quietly
launched
a
new
evergreen
private
equity
fund
targeting
high
net
worth investors,
exemplifying
the
great
convergence
between
traditional
and
alternative
asset
management
as
established
players
democratize
private
equity
access
beyond
institutional
investors.
Currency
markets
reflected
pre
Fed
caution
with
the
euro
increasing
modestly
to
1.176
against
the
dollar
as
European
yields
held
firm.
Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Central
banks
delivered
intricate
messaging
as
global
monetary
policy
entered
a
pressing
inflection
point.
The
Bank
of
Japan
maintained
its
cautious
approach
to
normalization
while
signaling
increased
comfort
with
yen
strength
above
140.
Swiss
National
Bank
officials
express
concern
over
deflationary
pressures
from
Chinese
manufacturing
overcapacity,
particularly
in
green
technology
sectors.
Commodity
markets
reflected
this
tension
with
industrial
metals
declining
on
demand
concerns
while
precious
metals
found
support
from
diversification
flows.
Silver
climbed
to
a
14
year
high
exceeding
$40
per
ounce
driven
by
a
technical
breakout
and
a
short
squeeze
as
institutional
traders
exited
large
positions
amid
intensified
industrial
demand
from
AI
infrastructure
and
electrification.
European
equity
markets
outperformed
on
renewed infrastructure investment
commitments
with
utilities
and
industrials
leading
the
charts.
OpenAI
announced
the
launch
of
Stargate
Norway
with
its
first
major
AI
infrastructure
project
in
Europe.
Wednesday, September 17, 2025
The
US
Department
of
the
Treasury
reported
that
foreign holdings
of
US
treasuries
stood
at
a
record
$9.13
trillian
in
June
2025
up
from
$8.53
trillion
in
January.At
$1.5
trillion
and
$0.86
trillion,
Japan
and
the
UK
were
the
largest
non-US
holders
of
Treasuries
in
June.
The
US
Census
Bureau
estimated
the
median
income
for
family
households
increased
by
3.0%
year
over
year
to
$108,000
in
2024.
The
poverty
rate
contracted
as
incomes
increased
with
the
official
poverty
rate
decreasing
by
0.4
percentage
points
from
11.0%
in
2023
to
10.6%
in
2024.
The
Federal
Reserve
cut
rates
by
25
basis
points
to
4.00-4.25%
marking
the
first
easing
of
2025
and
signaling
an
equilibrated
approach to
policy
normalization.
Market
reaction
was
notably
muted,
suggesting
the
25bp
move
was
fully
priced.
JPMorgan
Private
Bank's
characterized
this
as
a
"rate
cut
during
a
slowdown,
not
a
slump,"
positioning
global
risk
assets
for
potential
outperformance
as
US
dollar
weakness
creates
tailwinds
for
international
markets.
McKinsey's
"Great
Convergence"
report
released
on
this
day,
classifies
a
structural
shift
that
could
unlock
$6-10.5
trillion
in
asset
flows
over
five
years
as
traditional
and
alternative
managers
blur
boundaries
to
meet
client
demand
for
integrated
public-private
portfolio
solutions.
The
private
equity
momentum
continues
accelerating
as
HPS
Investment
Partners
and
Blue
Owl
Capital
provided
$1.2
billion
in
financing
to
support
GTCR's
acquisition
of
SimpliSafe,
while
Blue
Owl
simultaneously
launched
its
debut
interval
fund
focused
on
alternative
credit.
Thursday, September 18, 2025
Post
Fed
market
dynamics
revealed
sophisticated
positioning
strategies
as
institutional
flows
increased
into
rate
sensitive
sectors
(REITs
+2.3%
week
over
week,
utilities
mixed
with
defensive
characteristics
offsetting
rate
sensitivity,
while
homebuilders
faced
crosscurrents
as
Lennar
fell
4.4%
on
earnings
despair
rate
tailwinds).
Real
Estate
Investment
Trusts
accelerated
as
lower
rates
enhanced
their
3.8%
dividend
yields
while
regional
banks
faced
pressure
from
compressed
net
interest
margin
expectations.
Technology
sector
experienced
internal
rotation
with
cloud
infrastructure
providers
outperforming
consumer
facing
platforms
amid
enterprise
spending
resilience.
Private
market
activity
intensified
dramatically,
with
secondary
market
volumes
on
track
to
reach
$200
billion
by
year
end
2025,
driven
by
LP
led
transactions
as
funds
rush
to
monetize
positions
while
continuation
fund
volumes
surge
amid
persistent
liquidity
concerns.
Asian
markets
responded
positively
to
Fed
easing
with
the
Hang
Seng
increasing
2.1%
on
freshly
portrayed
Hong
Kong
property
sector
optimism.
McKinsey
reported
that
global
demand
for
infrastructure
investment
capital
is
expected
to
reach
a
total
of
$106
trillion
by
2040.
Friday, September 19, 2025
Weekly
positioning
flows
revealed the
new
market
regime
taking
shape
post
Fed
pivot.
Foreign
exchanges
markets
portrayed
sustained
dollar
weakness
with
DXY
falling
to
three
month
lows
as
carry
trade
dynamics
reversed
further
validating
JPMorgan's
Private
Bank's
thesis
that
international
diversification
opportunities
are
expanding
as
global
risk
assets
benefit
from
US
monetary
easing.
BlackRocks
sophisticated positioning
strategy emerged
as
FX
hedged
became
a
significant
income
source
with
French
and
Spanish
10-year
government
bonds
offering
yields
above
5%
when
currency
hedged
back
to
dollars.
TikTok
acquisition
finalized
a
deal
with
US
control
of
the
algorithm
and
a
consortium
led
by
Oracle,
Andreesseen
Horowitz
and
Silver
Lake
taking
80%
ownership,
marking
a
$100+
billion
opportunity.
AI
infrastructure
activity
accelerated
with
Figure
AI
achieving
a
$39
billion
valuation
through
a
$1
billion
Series
C
led
by
Nvidia,
Intel
Capital
and
Brookfield
Asset
Management.
Open
AI
quietly
recruited
robotics
researchers
after
shuttering
its
robotics
division
in
2021,
reframing
renewed
focus
on
algorithms
that
interact
beyond
text
generation.
European
credit
spreads
tightened
significantly
with
investment
grade
corporate
bonds
outperforming
sovereign debt
as
duration
risk
repricing
increased.
Energy
sector
rotation
continued
with
renewable
infrastructure
assets
gaining
smooth
momentum
from
lower
financing
costs
while
traditional
oil
majors
faced
headwinds
from
demand
destruction
concerns.
Index
Index
US Treasury: Intermediate
Fed Funds
Investment Grade Spread (A2)
Domestic Equity
$2.706 Billion
Current Week
Previous
-$934 Million
$1.807 Billion
$12.202 Billion
$1.575 Billion
$18.90 Billion
$33.47 Billion
$13.531 Billion
$270 Million
$1.24 Billion
$42.58 Billion
-$133 Million
Foreign Equity
Taxable Bond
Municipal Bond
Retail
Institutional
92 bps
BofA US High Yield Constrained Index Spread
279 bps
2-yr Treasury Note
5-yr Treasury Note
10-yr Treasury Note
30-yr Treasury Bond
30-yr Fixed Mortgage
Prime Rate
Bond Buyer 40
4.25%-4.50%
3.56%
3.63%
4.06%
4.68%
6.53%
7.50%
4.69%
2.90%
3.10%
0.47%
2.03%
1.69%
1.71%
CPI Headline
CPI Core
Money Market Accounts
1-yr CD
3-yr CD
5-yr CD
GNMA 30 Year
US Aggregate
US Corporate High Yield
US Corporate Investment Grade
Municipal Bond: Long Bond (22+)
Global Aggregate
Week
YTD
12-mo.
2024
5-yr.
Index
Week
YTD
12-mo.
2024
5-yr.
DJIA (45,834)
Communication Services
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Real Estate
Utilities
0.97%
0.87%
1.29%
-0.15%
1.58%
1.34%
0.16%
0.45%
3.10%
0.03%
0.39%
2.44%
14.58%
13.71%
23.43%
11.20%
5.76%
-2.41%
5.23%
7.17%
11.43%
2.78%
-0.04%
9.46%
17.81%
27.41%
36.61%
23.20%
15.69%
18.76%
17.30%
16.10%
1.34%
-9.82%
2.58%
7.50%
12.14%
23.08%
30.50%
18.97%
5.39%
7.23%
5.72%
27.31%
5.84%
2.16%
14.87%
8.87%
5.07%
25.25%
30.14%
10.69%
24.97%
45.17%
40.23%
17.54%
9.07%
13.46%
14.99%
12.78%
12.97%
19.20%
25.00%
16.22%
17.65%
28.95%
35.81%
16.84%
7.83%
7.88%
12.27%
14.77%
6.50%
10.47%
15.93%
11.48%
5.98%
12.97%
11.65%
16.00%
4.52%
7.54%
9.55%
10.95%
2.61%
9.50%
7.54%
14.02%
8.49%
14.10%
11.53%
11.30%
24.52%
18.53%
3.82%
10.59%
15.86%
19.37%
18.67%
14.10%
25.49%
25.78%
7.50%
6.50%
5.57%
12.86%
9.25%
17.99%
1.60%
2.63%
6,664.36
46,315.27
9,216.67
5,458.42
45,045.81
3,820.09
97.65
66.66
0.41%
-0.20%
-0.64%
-0.41%
-0.61%
0.27%
1.15%
1.48%
3.96%
1.26%
0.00%
5.45%
3.58%
2.42%
0.37%
0.48%
6.84%
3.34%
0.95%
0.07%
0.41%
6.40%
2.87%
1.25%
-0.44%
0.27%
6.98%
8.43%
8.19%
5.35%
0.59%
7.15%
2.13%
0.29%
2.43%
0.25%
-1.01%
1.40%
-0.05%
0.20%
8.04%
3.07%
-1.69%
-1.56%
S&P 500 (6,584)
S&P Index Performance
S&P Sector Performance
Bond Index Performance
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Key Rates
Market Indicators
Weekly Fund Flows
S&P 500 Growth
S&P 500 Value
S&P MidCap 400 Growth
S&P MidCap 400 Value
S&P SmallCap 600 Growth
S&P SmallCap 600 Value
Russell 2000
MSCI EAFE
MSCI World
MSCI Emerging Markets
S&P GSCI
Week
YTD
12-mo.
2024
5-yr.
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