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The Slot Economy
2026
Heavy duty turbine backlogs and casting bottlenecks have created slot reservations into financial assets which results in a restructuring of the capital stack between power generation and hyperscale data centers where over $61 billion in outstanding securitized debt now requires intercreditor models to isolate power delivery risks from tenant credit.
Heavy duty turbine backlogs and casting bottlenecks have created slot reservations into financial assets which results in a restructuring of the capital stack between power generation and hyperscale data centers where over $61 billion in outstanding securitized debt now requires intercreditor models to isolate power delivery risks from tenant credit.
Heavy duty turbine backlogs and casting bottlenecks have created slot reservations into financial assets which results in a restructuring of the capital stack between power generation and hyperscale data centers where over $61 billion in outstanding securitized debt now requires intercreditor models to isolate power delivery risks from tenant credit.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Power availability has overtaken offtake credit as the binding constraint on AI data center development and the heavy-duty gas turbine market shows it most clearly with companies such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power whom build nearly all of the world’s energy supply and we expect all three to stay sold out through the end of the decade. This scarcity is reshaping how these projects get financed with developers turning to Bring-Your-Own-Power (BYOP) structures that are basically paid slot reservations for equipment that doesn’t exist yet and a capital stack that now separates the power asset from the data center it feeds. Moreover, we find:
1) 116 GW. GE Vernova’s combined firm backlog and slot reservation agreements reached 116 GW in Q2 2026, up from 83 GW at year end 2025 - roughly six years of committed output at current annualized production of around 20 GW.
2) $61b. Data Center ABS outstanding has grown from $4b in 2020 to approximately $61b year to date 2026, pricing at 150-200bp over Treasuries with a 5-year weighted average life.
3) Dec-2025 FERC order. A directive to PJM to rewrite co-located load and behind the meter generation tariff rules is unsettling the legal basis for financings closed just months earlier which created inter creditor risk that did not exist in the traditional grid connected financing model.
In this report, we analyze (1) the scale and mechanics of the turbine backlog, (2) the slot-reservation agreement as an emerging financial instrument, (3) the bifurcated capital stack that BYOP has produced, and (4) the regulatory architecture still being written underneath with certain implications on how project finance should underwrite these deals going forward.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Power availability has overtaken offtake credit as the binding constraint on AI data center development and the heavy-duty gas turbine market shows it most clearly with companies such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power whom build nearly all of the world’s energy supply and we expect all three to stay sold out through the end of the decade. This scarcity is reshaping how these projects get financed with developers turning to Bring-Your-Own-Power (BYOP) structures that are basically paid slot reservations for equipment that doesn’t exist yet and a capital stack that now separates the power asset from the data center it feeds. Moreover, we find:
1) 116 GW. GE Vernova’s combined firm backlog and slot reservation agreements reached 116 GW in Q2 2026, up from 83 GW at year end 2025 - roughly six years of committed output at current annualized production of around 20 GW.
2) $61b. Data Center ABS outstanding has grown from $4b in 2020 to approximately $61b year to date 2026, pricing at 150-200bp over Treasuries with a 5-year weighted average life.
3) Dec-2025 FERC order. A directive to PJM to rewrite co-located load and behind the meter generation tariff rules is unsettling the legal basis for financings closed just months earlier which created inter creditor risk that did not exist in the traditional grid connected financing model.
In this report, we analyze (1) the scale and mechanics of the turbine backlog, (2) the slot-reservation agreement as an emerging financial instrument, (3) the bifurcated capital stack that BYOP has produced, and (4) the regulatory architecture still being written underneath with certain implications on how project finance should underwrite these deals going forward.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Power availability has overtaken offtake credit as the binding constraint on AI data center development and the heavy-duty gas turbine market shows it most clearly with companies such as GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power whom build nearly all of the world’s energy supply and we expect all three to stay sold out through the end of the decade. This scarcity is reshaping how these projects get financed with developers turning to Bring-Your-Own-Power (BYOP) structures that are basically paid slot reservations for equipment that doesn’t exist yet and a capital stack that now separates the power asset from the data center it feeds. Moreover, we find:
1) 116 GW. GE Vernova’s combined firm backlog and slot reservation agreements reached 116 GW in Q2 2026, up from 83 GW at year end 2025 - roughly six years of committed output at current annualized production of around 20 GW.
2) $61b. Data Center ABS outstanding has grown from $4b in 2020 to approximately $61b year to date 2026, pricing at 150-200bp over Treasuries with a 5-year weighted average life.
3) Dec-2025 FERC order. A directive to PJM to rewrite co-located load and behind the meter generation tariff rules is unsettling the legal basis for financings closed just months earlier which created inter creditor risk that did not exist in the traditional grid connected financing model.
In this report, we analyze (1) the scale and mechanics of the turbine backlog, (2) the slot-reservation agreement as an emerging financial instrument, (3) the bifurcated capital stack that BYOP has produced, and (4) the regulatory architecture still being written underneath with certain implications on how project finance should underwrite these deals going forward.
Pillar
Power & Project Finance
Asset Class
Structured Credit
Infrastructure
Date
Q4 2026
Date
Q4 2026
Purview. This report covers the financing of gas-fired, on-site, and behind-the-meter power generation built specifically to serve AI data center load in the United States and the securitized and structured credit markets that have grown around it. It does not cover renewable PPA structures, nuclear SMR financing, or grid-scale transmission investment, each of which we treat as adjacent but distinct topics.
I. The bottleneck moved from grid to the factory floor
Grid interconnection queues were the first constraint to bind and in some regions the wait from application to energized service now stretches close to four years. Developers have responded by routing around the grid entirely which is where the term Bring-Your-Own-Power or BYOP comes around and is a way to relocate the bottleneck one link down the supply chain, from the utility queue to the gas turbine order book.
The scale of that order book is, in our view, the single most important physical constraint on the AI infrastructure buildout today. A unit ordered from any of the three major OEMs will not arrive before 2028 and for the largest firms, not before 2030 or 2031.
Figure 01: Heavy-duty gas turbine backlog by OEM, Q2 ‘26
Backlog composition differs by OEM — GE Vernova’s figure blends firm orders and paid slot reservations; Siemens Energy reports firm backlog only. Baker Hughes discloses backlog in dollar terms rather than GW, as its Gas Technology Equipment segment includes LNG equipment alongside turbines and is not broken out by capacity.
Purview. This report covers the financing of gas-fired, on-site, and behind-the-meter power generation built specifically to serve AI data center load in the United States and the securitized and structured credit markets that have grown around it. It does not cover renewable PPA structures, nuclear SMR financing, or grid-scale transmission investment, each of which we treat as adjacent but distinct topics.
I. The bottleneck moved from grid to the factory floor
Grid interconnection queues were the first constraint to bind and in some regions the wait from application to energized service now stretches close to four years. Developers have responded by routing around the grid entirely which is where the term Bring-Your-Own-Power or BYOP comes around and is a way to relocate the bottleneck one link down the supply chain, from the utility queue to the gas turbine order book.
The scale of that order book is, in our view, the single most important physical constraint on the AI infrastructure buildout today. A unit ordered from any of the three major OEMs will not arrive before 2028 and for the largest firms, not before 2030 or 2031.
Figure 01: Heavy-duty gas turbine backlog by OEM, Q2 ‘26
Backlog composition differs by OEM — GE Vernova’s figure blends firm orders and paid slot reservations; Siemens Energy reports firm backlog only. Baker Hughes discloses backlog in dollar terms rather than GW, as its Gas Technology Equipment segment includes LNG equipment alongside turbines and is not broken out by capacity.
Purview. This report covers the financing of gas-fired, on-site, and behind-the-meter power generation built specifically to serve AI data center load in the United States and the securitized and structured credit markets that have grown around it. It does not cover renewable PPA structures, nuclear SMR financing, or grid-scale transmission investment, each of which we treat as adjacent but distinct topics.
I. The bottleneck moved from grid to the factory floor
Grid interconnection queues were the first constraint to bind and in some regions the wait from application to energized service now stretches close to four years. Developers have responded by routing around the grid entirely which is where the term Bring-Your-Own-Power or BYOP comes around and is a way to relocate the bottleneck one link down the supply chain, from the utility queue to the gas turbine order book.
The scale of that order book is, in our view, the single most important physical constraint on the AI infrastructure buildout today. A unit ordered from any of the three major OEMs will not arrive before 2028 and for the largest firms, not before 2030 or 2031.
Figure 01: Heavy-duty gas turbine backlog by OEM, Q2 ‘26
Backlog composition differs by OEM — GE Vernova’s figure blends firm orders and paid slot reservations; Siemens Energy reports firm backlog only. Baker Hughes discloses backlog in dollar terms rather than GW, as its Gas Technology Equipment segment includes LNG equipment alongside turbines and is not broken out by capacity.
Purview. This report covers the financing of gas-fired, on-site, and behind-the-meter power generation built specifically to serve AI data center load in the United States and the securitized and structured credit markets that have grown around it. It does not cover renewable PPA structures, nuclear SMR financing, or grid-scale transmission investment, each of which we treat as adjacent but distinct topics.
I. The bottleneck moved from grid to the factory floor
Grid interconnection queues were the first constraint to bind and in some regions the wait from application to energized service now stretches close to four years. Developers have responded by routing around the grid entirely which is where the term Bring-Your-Own-Power or BYOP comes around and is a way to relocate the bottleneck one link down the supply chain, from the utility queue to the gas turbine order book.
The scale of that order book is, in our view, the single most important physical constraint on the AI infrastructure buildout today. A unit ordered from any of the three major OEMs will not arrive before 2028 and for the largest firms, not before 2030 or 2031.
Purview. This report covers the financing of gas-fired, on-site, and behind-the-meter power generation built specifically to serve AI data center load in the United States and the securitized and structured credit markets that have grown around it. It does not cover renewable PPA structures, nuclear SMR financing, or grid-scale transmission investment, each of which we treat as adjacent but distinct topics.
I. The bottleneck moved from grid to the factory floor
Grid interconnection queues were the first constraint to bind and in some regions the wait from application to energized service now stretches close to four years. Developers have responded by routing around the grid entirely which is where the term Bring-Your-Own-Power or BYOP comes around and is a way to relocate the bottleneck one link down the supply chain, from the utility queue to the gas turbine order book.
The scale of that order book is, in our view, the single most important physical constraint on the AI infrastructure buildout today. A unit ordered from any of the three major OEMs will not arrive before 2028 and for the largest firms, not before 2030 or 2031.
Purview. This report covers the financing of gas-fired, on-site, and behind-the-meter power generation built specifically to serve AI data center load in the United States and the securitized and structured credit markets that have grown around it. It does not cover renewable PPA structures, nuclear SMR financing, or grid-scale transmission investment, each of which we treat as adjacent but distinct topics.
I. The bottleneck moved from grid to the factory floor
Grid interconnection queues were the first constraint to bind and in some regions the wait from application to energized service now stretches close to four years. Developers have responded by routing around the grid entirely which is where the term Bring-Your-Own-Power or BYOP comes around and is a way to relocate the bottleneck one link down the supply chain, from the utility queue to the gas turbine order book.
The scale of that order book is, in our view, the single most important physical constraint on the AI infrastructure buildout today. A unit ordered from any of the three major OEMs will not arrive before 2028 and for the largest firms, not before 2030 or 2031.
